Longform guide

Sixer toss reading · the desk's toss-time playbook

The desk's longform guide on reading the toss and the pitch report in the 30 minutes between the toss and the squad lock. The guide walks through the four-step playbook, the venue ledger and three worked toss-reading walkthroughs.

What this guide covers

This guide walks through the desk's toss-time playbook. The guide is a long-form read for readers who want to understand how to read the toss and the pitch report in the 30 minutes between the toss and the squad lock, not just what to do after the toss. The guide is published as a single HTML page, designed for slow reading with a notebook, and walks through the venue ledger, the toss trend, the dew factor and the desk's three toss-reading rules.

The desk's toss-time playbook

The desk's toss-time playbook has four steps. Step one: read the pitch report. The pitch report tells the reader whether the surface is green (pace-friendly), dry (spin-friendly) or balanced. A green pitch shifts the captain pick toward a frontline pace bowler; a dry pitch shifts the captain pick toward a spin-bowling all-rounder; a balanced pitch leaves the captain pick on the original ledger reading. Step two: read the toss outcome. The toss outcome tells the reader whether the team batting first or the team chasing is likely to win. The desk's venue ledger publishes a chase win percentage for every India venue; a toss outcome that favours the team chasing is a signal to pick chasing-side batters as captain.

Step three: read the dew factor. The dew factor is a function of the venue, the match time and the weather. Wankhede has a sea breeze that lifts dew after 16 overs and favours the chasing side under lights. Chepauk has no dew but a dry surface that turns from over 11 and favours the side batting first. Eden Gardens has an evening crosswind that can affect the square boundary and favours the side that bats first on a balanced pitch. The desk reads the dew factor as a per-venue modifier to the chase win percentage. Step four: read the official playing XI. The playing XI tells the reader whether a tagged player is actually playing or whether the franchise has rested a star player for rotation. The desk updates the captain ledger within 30 minutes of the toss to reflect the official XI.

Why the toss reading matters

The toss reading matters because the toss outcome and the pitch report can shift the captain pick and the role weighting by 20 to 30 percent of expected fantasy points. A pitch report that shifts from balanced to green can move the captain pick from a power-hitter to a frontline pace bowler; the new captain can deliver 70 to 80 base points instead of the original captain's 50 to 60 base points, a 20 percent improvement. The toss outcome that favours the chasing side can shift the captain pick from a top-order anchor to a power-hitter; the new captain can deliver 60 to 75 base points instead of the original captain's 45 to 55 base points, a 30 percent improvement.

Three toss-reading walkthroughs

Walkthrough one: Wankhede, T20, night match, captain toss wins and elects to bowl. Pitch report: balanced with slight grass cover. Desk reading: chasing-side win percentage 52 percent (above the 50 percent breakeven), dew factor lifts after 16 overs, captain pick shifts from a top-order anchor to a power-hitter who can score in the death overs. Walkthrough two: Chepauk, T20, day match, captain toss wins and elects to bat. Pitch report: dry surface with slow turn from over 11. Desk reading: chasing-side win percentage 38 percent (well below breakeven), spin holds from over 11, captain pick shifts from a frontline pace bowler to a spin-bowling all-rounder. Walkthrough three: Eden Gardens, T20, night match, captain toss wins and elects to bat. Pitch report: balanced with evening crosswind. Desk reading: chasing-side win percentage 46 percent (slightly below breakeven), outfield is fast, captain pick holds on the original ledger reading (a top-order anchor).

Toss-reading checklist

Read the pitch report within 30 minutes of the toss.
Cross-check the venue ledger's chase win percentage.
Read the toss outcome and identify the chasing-side bias.
Adjust the captain pick if the toss outcome shifts the expected role.
Check the official playing XI and update the captain ledger.
Lock the team 15 minutes before the toss and re-check the playing XI.

Read the captain picks page for the 2.0x multiplier arithmetic that the toss reading shapes, the matchday desk page for the venue ledger, and the captain pick arithmetic guide for the per-point cost walkthrough.

Reader questions

Toss reading · FAQ

Does the desk update the captain pick after the toss?

Yes. The desk updates the captain ledger within 30 minutes of the toss, after the official playing XI is announced. The ledger is also revised if a key player is rested or if the pitch report changes the likely bowling match-up.

How does the dew factor affect the captain pick?

Wankhede has a sea breeze that lifts dew after 16 overs and favours the chasing side under lights. Chepauk has no dew but a dry surface that turns from over 11 and favours the side batting first. The desk reads the dew factor as a per-venue modifier to the chase win percentage and adjusts the captain pick accordingly.

What is a green pitch and how does it shift the captain pick?

A green pitch is a pitch with visible grass cover that holds together for the first 15 to 20 overs and assists pace bowlers with movement off the seam. A green pitch shifts the captain pick from a power-hitter to a frontline pace bowler because the pace bowler's expected wickets and economy-rate bonuses are higher than the power-hitter's expected boundary bonuses on a green pitch.

Can I change my captain pick after the toss?

Most operators lock the captain pick at the time the contest squad is locked, which is 15 minutes before the toss. Some operators allow an impact-player substitution at the toss but do not allow a captain change. The desk recommends locking the captain pick at the same time as the squad.